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【目的】针对电-热-氢多能耦合综合能源系统在源荷双侧不确定性下的容量配置问题，提出一种考虑模糊机会约束的双层优化模型，旨在实现系统经济性与环境性的协同优化。【方法】本文建立包含电-热-氢的多能耦合综合能源系统，利用模糊机会约束描述源荷双侧的不确定性，引入碳交易机制，通过建立双层模型求解该系统设备容量配置方案。【结果】研究表明当考虑源荷不确定性后，系统内各发电单元的配置容量均有所提高以满足随时可能出现的风险波动，总成本上升22.4%。储热作为成本低廉且无碳排放的灵活性调节资源可以显著降低系统规划总成本，而碳交易成本的加入将会降低燃气设备配置容量并提高系统总成本3.91%。典型日调度结果显示，电解制氢单元在谷时产氢，系统可出售氢气获取收益。储电和储热系统在用能低谷时利用低电价充能，在用能高峰实现削峰。考虑不确定性后，电网购电量增加且燃气轮机保持额定功率输出，运行成本上升19.8%，但同时提高了系统风光消纳量。当电网初始碳配额为正，则不需要在碳交易市场上购入额外碳配额，并且有富余可供出售。当系统置信水平从0.60增加到0.95，系统典型日运行成本增加12.9%。【结论】本文所提双层规划模型在保障系统用能安全的基础上，实现了经济性与环保性的平衡，提升了系统对源荷不确定性的应对能力。
Abstract：[Objective]To address the capacity configuration problem of an electric-thermal-hydrogen multi-energy coupled integrated energy system under source-load uncertainties, a two-layer optimization model considering fuzzy chance constraints is proposed, aiming to achieve synergistic optimization of both economic efficiency and environmental performance. [Methods]This paper establishes a multi-energy coupled integrated energy system incorporating electricity, heat, and hydrogen. Fuzzy chance constraints are used to describe the uncertainties on both the source and load sides, and a carbon trading mechanism is introduced. A two-layer model is established to solve the equipment capacity configuration scheme for the system. [Results]The study shows that after considering source-load uncertainty, the configuration capacity of each power generation unit in the system increases to meet potential risk fluctuations, with the total cost rising by 22.4%. Thermal storage, as a low-cost and carbon-free flexible regulation resource, can significantly reduce the total system planning cost, while the addition of carbon trading costs reduces the configuration capacity of gas-fired equipment and increases the total system cost by 3.91%. Typical daily scheduling results indicate that the hydrogen production unit operates during off-peak hours, allowing the system to sell hydrogen for revenue. The power and heat storage systems charge during low-energy consumption periods using low electricity prices and shave peaks during high-energy consumption periods. After considering uncertainty, power purchases from the grid increase and the gas turbine maintains rated power output, leading to a 19.8% increase in operating costs, but simultaneously improving the system's wind and solar power consumption. When the initial carbon quota for the grid is positive, there is no need to purchase additional carbon quotas on the carbon trading market, and surplus quotas are available for sale. When the system confidence level increases from 0.60 to 0.95, the typical daily operating cost increases by 12.9%.[Conclusion] The proposed two-layer planning model achieves a balance between economy and environmental protection while ensuring system energy security, and enhances the system's ability to cope with sourceload uncertainties.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2026.03.014
中图分类号:TM73;TK01
引用信息:
[1]沈昊天,徐玉杰,周学志,等.考虑源荷不确定性的电-热-氢综合能源系统容量配置优化[J].电力科技与环保,2026,42(03):482-496.DOI:10.19944/j.eptep.1674-8069.2026.03.014.
基金信息:
中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目资助(117GJHZ2023009MI);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助项目(XDC0190000); 江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项重大创新载体建设项目(BM2022001)
2025-07-07
2025
2025-12-30
2025-12-25
2025
1
2026-06-15
2026-06-15